Russia's Starlink Rival Falters as Satellites Fail and Rocket Plant Is Hit

Russia's plan to field a domestic alternative to Starlink is running into serious trouble, with one Rassvet-3 communications satellite already lost and two more potentially heading toward atmospheric reentry. The setbacks come as a Ukrainian missile strike on the plant that builds the program's launch vehicles adds fresh pressure to a schedule that calls for hundreds of satellites in orbit by the end of 2027.

Russian aerospace company Bureau 1440 launched two operational batches of Rassvet-3 satellites this year as part of its planned broadband constellation, sending the first into orbit on March 23 and the second on July 19. The deployment has not gone according to plan. One spacecraft from the first batch, Rassvet-3 No. 4, identified as NORAD 68363, failed to raise its orbit and reentered Earth's atmosphere on June 6.

Now two satellites from the second batch appear to be facing a similar problem. Rassvet-3 Nos. 17 and 23, registered as NORAD 100083 and 100089, have not performed a single observed orbital-raising maneuver since separating from their launch vehicle on July 19, according to satellite tracking data. Both remain at an average orbital altitude of roughly 290 kilometers, with their lowest orbital points at about 277 kilometers. Their orbits are gradually decaying, and unless the spacecraft activate their propulsion systems and climb higher, they could eventually reach a point where atmospheric drag makes reentry unavoidable.

The Rassvet-3 spacecraft that have successfully begun raising their orbits have also yet to reach the constellation's originally announced target altitude of roughly 800 kilometers. Even satellites from the first operational batch, launched more than five months ago, remain well below that target, with most currently operating at roughly 500 to 550 kilometers and several yet to reach even that altitude. Why Bureau 1440 has not continued raising the spacecraft toward the announced 800-kilometer orbit remains unclear.

Russia plans to use the Rassvet constellation as a domestic counterpart to SpaceX's Starlink, providing high-speed broadband communications through hundreds of interconnected satellites in low Earth orbit. The program is supposed to begin offering service in 2027, with plans calling for roughly 292 operational satellites in orbit by the end of that year. Keeping that schedule will require a rapid series of additional launches.

Russia now faces a further complication on the ground. Ukraine struck the Progress Rocket and Space Center in Samara on August 15 using FP-5 Flamingo cruise missiles. The facility manufactures Soyuz-family launch vehicles, including the Soyuz-2.1b rockets used to deploy Rassvet-3 satellites. The plant supports not only the Rassvet program but also launches involving Russian military, reconnaissance and communications satellites.

If those setbacks persist, Russia's plan to have nearly 300 Rassvet satellites operating by the end of 2027 could become significantly harder to achieve. Damage to key production areas at Progress could create additional pressure on Russia's ability to maintain the launch tempo needed to build the constellation. Previous reports identified the production of carrier rockets as one of the key constraints on the deployment.

The Rassvet program's progress will depend on whether Bureau 1440 can raise its remaining satellites toward the target orbit and sustain the launch cadence required to reach 292 operational spacecraft by the end of 2027, alongside the state of production at the Samara plant.